My Son's Future in 2040: Choosing His Path in a Declining Korea? And Remembering Korea's Glorious Moments
Recently, I watched a video discussing the future of society, and it left me deep in thought. My biggest concern is the future of my son, who will be 27 years old in 2040. Will he be able to find a stable career in a Korean company? Or will he have to leave a Korea that is likely in decline to seek new opportunities abroad?
Stalled Growth: The Shadow Over South Korea's Economy Post-2040
Experts predict a continuous decline in South Korea's GDP after 2040. There's even a prevailing opinion that the national pension contributions that the current young generation diligently pays may not be fully available to them in their retirement. Amidst these bleak prospects, can I confidently tell my son, "Of course, you should live in Korea"?
Marriage and Childbirth: No Longer an Obvious Choice in This Era
Furthermore, I've been pondering whether I can even urge my son to marry and have children. In a nation heading downhill, is it right to bring children into the world to face a difficult life? I believe this question resonates with many parents.
Solutions for Population Decline: Immigration or Unification?
I've also considered solutions to South Korea's severe population decline. Accepting immigrants could effectively slow down the rate of decrease in the short term. However, this also means that South Korean society will inevitably lose its identity as a homogeneous nation and transform into a multi-ethnic state, much like the United States. Personally, I believe this change is inevitable and could even bring positive aspects by enhancing social diversity.
Unification with North Korea could also be an alternative to mitigate population decline. Of course, the immediate aftermath of unification would likely bring significant challenges due to the economic burden and cultural differences. However, from a long-term perspective, unification could provide new growth engines and help resolve the imbalance in the population structure.
Humanoid Robots: South Korea's Last Hope for Economic Revival?
Ultimately, to revitalize South Korea's declining economy, it's crucial to create an environment where the younger generation can work more efficiently and creatively. The development and widespread adoption of humanoid robot technology to replace simple, repetitive manual labor is essential. South Korea must make proactive investments in this field to secure future growth drivers.
My Blog: Recording Korea's Most Brilliant Moments
Moving forward, this blog will focus on sharing stories centered around South Korea's beautiful travel destinations. I hope that after 2040, these writings will serve as a record of Korea's most glorious and magnificent moments. I aim to vividly capture Korea's remarkable development, stunning nature, and the happy times we shared, all through the lens of travel.
I sincerely hope that everyone who reads this will visit Korea during its most beautiful era and personally experience these moments of glory. In just 15 years, the wonderful tourist attractions of Korea as we know them today might be gone forever.
#FutureOfSouthKorea #PopulationDecline #Year2040 #MySonsFuture #KoreanEconomy #ImmigrationPolicy #NorthSouthUnification #HumanoidRobots #KoreaTravel #GoldenAgeOfKorea
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1. The Current State and Severity of South Korea's Population Decline Crisis
South Korea is experiencing an unprecedented population decline crisis. This is due to the sharp and sustained decline in the total fertility rate over several decades. The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, and approximately 2.1 children are needed to maintain a stable population.
South Korea's total fertility rate has changed as follows:
- 1950s: Average of 6 children
- 1980s: Fell below 2 children
- 2023: 0.72 children (lowest in history)
Seoul's total fertility rate is even lower, averaging about 0.55 children. Approximately half of the women in Seoul do not have children, and the other half have only one.
If the current low birth rate continues, a severe population decline is expected. Currently, 100 people grow up to have 36 children, those children have 13, and then 5. Within four generations, 100 people will decrease to 5.
Problems are already appearing in the current population structure. For every four people aged 50, there is only one person aged 1.
Despite recording below-replacement fertility rates for decades, the consequences have not been significantly noticeable until now. Currently, South Korea's total population, working population, and GDP are at their peak and still growing.
However, population change is like a freight train. It's faintly heard in the distance and then suddenly overwhelms you. South Korea will soon face the impact of this population decline.
| Year | Total Fertility Rate (Children) | Notes |
| 1950s | 6.0+ | |
| 1980s | Below 2.0 | Fell below replacement fertility rate |
| 2023 | 0.72 | Lowest in history |
| 2023 (Seoul) | 0.55 | Lower than the national average |
2. Future Predictions for South Korean Society in 2060
We can predict what South Korea will look like in 2060, 35 years from now. The most commonly used demographic projections are those of the UN. The UN presents three scenarios: low, medium, and high fertility.
Historically, the UN's medium scenario has consistently been too optimistic for South Korea. Between 2022 and 2023, South Korea's fertility rate decreased by another 8%. Therefore, we will use the latest low-fertility scenario, which has been the most accurate in recent years.
It is important to remember that these are predictions, and the future is yet to unfold.
According to the UN's low-fertility scenario, South Korea's population structure in 2060 is expected to be as follows:
- The population will decrease by 30%.
- 16 million Koreans will disappear in just 35 years.
- South Korea will become the oldest country in human history.
- One out of every two Koreans will be over 65 years old.
- Less than one out of every ten people will be under 25 years old.
- Only one out of every 100 people will be a young child.
The social landscape of South Korea in 2060 is described as follows:
A country where the streets are eerily quiet because the sound of children playing cannot be heard. Entire cities are abandoned like ghost towns, and half of the population are elderly, living alone or in overcrowded nursing homes. A small number of people desperately try to keep society functioning.
| Category | Current (2023) | Expected in 2060 (UN Low-Fertility Scenario) | Notes |
| Total Population Decline Rate | - | 30% decrease | Expected decrease of 16 million people |
| Percentage of Population Over 65 | - | Over 50% of the population | Expected to be the highest in human history |
| Percentage of Population Under 25 | - | Less than 10% of the population | |
| Percentage of Young Children | - | 1% of the population | Expected to be 1 out of 100 people |
| Social Landscape | Normal | Quiet streets, abandoned cities | Missing children, increased elderly population |
3. The Impact of Population Decline on the Economy
Population decline will lead to several major economic consequences.
The collapse of the economic system is anticipated. Poverty among the elderly will worsen, and the pension system will be depleted.
As of 2023, 40% of South Koreans aged 65 and over live below the poverty line. While this figure may be shocking, it could become even more severe in the future.
Currently, South Korea has one of the largest pension funds in the world, worth approximately $730 billion. However, this fund is expected to stop growing in the 2040s and be completely depleted in the 2050s.
Therefore, in 2060, the working population will have to pay the pensions of the elderly. For a pension system to function properly, there need to be at least 2 to 3 tax-paying workers for every retiree. However, even if we assume that all South Koreans over the age of 15 are working in 2060, there will be less than one worker for every elderly person.
Workers will not be able to bear this enormous cost. As a result, not only will elderly poverty be rampant, but a significant number of elderly people will have to work. However, they may not be able to find jobs.
A decrease in the labor force is directly linked to the size of the economy. Generally, the size of the economy is connected to the size of the labor force. To have a large economy, you need many workers to produce many goods and many people to buy them.
Currently, South Korea has a working-age population of about 37 million people and generates a GDP of about $1.7 trillion. However, by 2060, the labor force will shrink to less than half that, to about 17 million people.
Slow economic growth or a permanent recession is expected. Of course, technological advancements will improve productivity, allowing individuals to produce more. However, even if productivity continues to grow at or above the rate of the past few decades, South Korea's GDP may peak in the 2040s.
In other words, South Korea will enter a permanent economic slump. There are more optimistic forecasts, but these are based on the UN's medium population scenario, and there are currently no signs that we are heading in that direction.
Another factor in the economy is science, technology, and innovation, areas where significant advancements are largely made by young and middle-aged adults. Young people bring fresh ideas that contribute to the wealth of society.
Government finances will deteriorate, and essential services are likely to be reduced.
If the number of working people significantly decreases, the government's tax revenue will also drastically decline. The government will face a dilemma: on the one hand, it will have to support half of the population who are elderly, and on the other hand, it will see its income decrease.
Essential services such as hospitals and social welfare services will have to be closed or reduced. Infrastructure only works when there is scale, so as the population shrinks and concentrates in larger metropolitan areas, smaller communities may be abandoned.
Of course, there will also not be enough money to invest in the future.
| Change in Economic Indicators | Current (2023) | Expected in 2060 | Notes |
| Poverty Among Those Over 65 | Over 40% | Rampant | |
| Pension Fund | Approx. $730 billion | Expected to be fully depleted by the 2050s | |
| Workers per Retiree | - | Less than 1 worker per retiree | Falls short of the minimum 2-3 needed to sustain the pension system |
| Working-Age Population | Approx. 37 million | Approx. 17 million | Decreased by more than half |
| GDP | Approx. $1.7 trillion | Expected to decline after peaking in the 2040s | Potential for a permanent economic slump |
| Government Tax Revenue | - | Significantly decreased | |
| Essential Services | Maintained | Potential closure or reduction | Hospitals, social welfare, etc. |
| Investment Capacity | Maintained | Insufficient | Expected difficulty in future investments |
4. The Impact of Population Decline on Society and Culture
While it is very difficult to predict how society and culture will evolve, there are some inevitable trends.
Social and cultural collapse may occur.
An increase in single-person households and deepening social isolation are emerging. Today, about 20% of South Koreans already live alone. Additionally, 20% reported having no close friends or relatives.
Changes in family structures are expected in future generations. By 2060, 50% of 70-year-old Koreans will have no siblings, and 30% will have no children. Young adults aged 25 to 35 will make up only 5% of the population and will generally have no siblings at all.
This means that the elderly will have few close family members left, and young adults will have little family and few potential friends. This will be especially severe outside of major metropolitan areas. A loneliness epidemic of enormous proportions is almost certainly guaranteed.
A breakdown of cultural traditions and an overall decline in culture are expected. On top of that, Korean culture will experience a tremendous decline. In 2000, there were 17.5 million Koreans aged 25 to 45, accounting for 37% of the total population. This generation brought many trends, including K-pop, K-drama, and K-food, that spread worldwide. By 2060, the population in that age group will be only 5.6 million, making up just 16% of the population.
Many cultural traditions are already struggling. This is because the older generation is having difficulty finding young people to pass on traditions to. As young people disappear, many traditions will disappear with them. Without the youth, the soul of Korean culture will diminish and wither.
On a personal level, what will it be like to grow up in 2060? What will youth culture be like in a country of old people where many universities, schools, and kindergartens are abandoned because children no longer fill them? What kind of job prospects will they face, and what will politics look like if young people don't want to be left alone?
The possibility of rural depopulation and the formation of ghost towns is high. Young people will concentrate in Seoul or a few other major cities, or worse for South Korea, they may emigrate to other countries. Rural areas will decline, and most small towns will turn into ghost towns. We can already see nearly 10 million vacant rural homes in Japan. A significant portion of South Korea will simply disappear and revert to nature.
5. The Impact of Population Decline on National Defense
Finally, and importantly, South and North Korea are technically still at war, and this could still be the case in 2060. Will South Korea still be able to require young men to serve 18 months of mandatory military service? Currently, 5% of combat-age men are serving in the military. By 2060, 15% will need to serve to maintain the same numbers as today.
6. Possibility of Overcoming the Population Decline Crisis and Solutions
All of this is quite serious. Is there no way back? In fact, there is no turning back. The problem with a demographic freight train is that once it crashes, it cannot be reversed.
Let's assume that South Korea's birth rate magically triples to the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman and stays there. In 2060, it will still be shaped like an upside-down pyramid on a barrel, with only 1.5 working-age people for every person over 65. Even in the best-case hypothetical scenario, South Korea will have to go through an unavoidable bottleneck before it can recover.
However, there is also a glimmer of hope here. While the situation is bleak, recovery is possible, at least in the long term, if South Korea implements rapid social changes that make people want to have children again.
In 2024, the number of births increased for the first time in nine years, up 3% from 2023. For this increase to continue, South Korea needs to face reality and ask how it got to this point.
The root causes of the low birth rate are diverse, and the specificities of South Korean society have exacerbated these trends. Generally, as societies become wealthier, more educated, and infant mortality rates plummet, people choose to have fewer children.
What makes South Korea special is that it has somehow gone through all these trends at hyper-speed. South Korea escaped poverty at a record pace. But in doing so, it developed a unique kind of workaholism and extreme competition. While the legal maximum work week is 52 hours including overtime on top of the standard 40 hours, unpaid overtime is common for many. The government even proposed increasing the legal work week to 69 hours.
Despite these efforts, South Korea has relatively low wages and a high cost of living. Real estate in major cities is unaffordable for most people. The cost of education is very high because you have to pay for private tutoring to get into a good university.
All of this is happening while South Korea spends less on family policies than other wealthy countries.
Outdated cultural norms further worsen the problem. Marriage is almost essential for couples to start a family. In 2023, only 4.7% of babies were born to unmarried women. Among developed countries, South Korean men contribute the least to housework and childcare within the home. This means that women have to do a disproportionate amount of work if they want to maintain their careers after pregnancy. At the same time, many men are overwhelmed by the social expectation to have a successful career as the primary breadwinner.
Whether or not to start a family is a personal decision, and most Koreans are deciding against it. The bottom line is that South Korea has created a culture where people rarely have children.
| Root Causes of Low Birth Rate and Efforts for Solutions | Details